1. You ran an experiment.
The full question
You ran an experiment. The north star metric (NSM) is profit per order.
Observed results
- Average order volume increased in treatment vs control.
- Profit per order decreased (statistically and/or practically meaningfully).
Task
Should you roll out the change? Explain your decision process.
Requirements
In your answer, cover:
- Why optimizing the NSM matters vs secondary metrics.
- What additional checks you would run (segment analysis, guardrails, novelty effects, heterogeneous treatment effects).
- When (if ever) you would still consider launching (e.g., if total profit increases, long-term effects, strategic goals).
- A clear final recommendation and next steps.
Model answer
Situation In my role as a product manager at Instacart, I recently ran an experiment aimed at increasing the average order volume. Our north star metric (NSM) was profit per order, which is crucial for the company's long-term sustainability. The experiment showed that while the average order volume increased in the treatment group compared to the control, the profit per order decreased significantly. This posed a challenge as it directly impacted our NSM, which is a primary indicator of our business health.
Task My task was to decide whether to roll out the change despite the decrease in profit per order. The key constraint was balancing the immediate impact on our NSM with potential long-term benefits or strategic goals.
Action
- I began by conducting a detailed segment analysis to understand if specific customer segments were driving the decrease in profit per order. This involved breaking down the data by demographics, order size, and frequency.
- Next, I checked for any novelty effects that might have influenced the initial results, ensuring that the observed changes were not just temporary spikes due to the newness of the experiment.
- I also evaluated heterogeneous treatment effects to see if the change had different impacts across various customer groups, which could inform a more targeted rollout strategy.
- I set up guardrails to monitor other critical metrics such as customer satisfaction and retention rates, ensuring that any rollout would not negatively affect these areas.
- After gathering these insights, I facilitated a discussion with key stakeholders, including finance and operations, to assess the broader implications of the experiment results. We considered scenarios where total profit might increase over time due to higher order volumes, even if profit per order was lower initially.
- Based on the analysis and discussions, I recommended a phased rollout. This approach would allow us to monitor the long-term effects on total profit and adjust the strategy as needed.
Result The decision to proceed with a phased rollout was well-received by the team. It allowed us to capture increased order volumes while closely monitoring profit trends. Over the next quarter, we observed a gradual increase in total profit, validating our strategic approach. This experience reinforced the importance of a data-driven decision-making process and the need to balance short-term metrics with long-term strategic goals.